Todays Rates: Purchase - 30 Year Fixed: 3.125%   APR: 3.201%     15 Year Fixed: 2.375%   APR: 2.494%      30 Year Fixed High Balance: 3.125%   APR: 3.205%      15 Year Fixed High Balance: 2.500%   APR: 2.608%          Refinance - 30 Year Fixed : 3.375%   APR: 3.432%     15 Year Fixed: 2.625%   APR: 2.726%      30 Year Fixed High Balance: 3.375%   APR: 3.436%      15 Year Fixed High Balance: 2.625%   APR: 2.769%

The Casil Report – A Financial Commentary on the Mortgage Markets by Lyons Vice President, Stephen Casil

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Good afternoon,

Today, Friday (07/14/17): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 2.32%, meaning generally lower mortgage rates than yesterday, mostly due to the worse than expected Retail Sales report below: 

– June 2017 U.S. Retail Sales decreased by 0.2% (0.1% decrease during the previous month), coming in worse than market expectations (0.1% increase).  In addition, excluding gasoline and auto sales, retail sales dropped slightly by 0.1% from the prior month.  This drop in retail sales, mostly due to lower department and restaurant sales, might lead to a drop in U.S. economic growth, since approximately 70% of U.S. GDP consists of consumer spending. 

– June 2017 U.S. CPI (consumer price levels) had no change from the prior month (0.1% decrease during the previous month), meeting market expectations.  In addition, Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1%, (0.1% increase during the previous month), coming in lower market expectations (increase of 0.2%). Overall, both yearly regular and Core CPI levels are still muted, showing that consumer inflation might be starting to stagnate, which could possibly slow down the timeline of any future Fed rate hikes. 

– June 2017 U.S. Industrial Production (output at factories, utilities and mines) increased by 0.4% (0.1% increase during the previous month), meeting market expectations. This month’s rise in industrial production, mostly due to a big rise in mining production and a small rise in manufacturing production (utility production had no change), could be an indicator of slow but steady U.S. economic growth, since manufacturing growth is the biggest factor of the three.

– The preliminary July 2017 U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment dropped to an Index Level of 93.1 (95.1 Index Level during the previous month), coming in worse than market expectations (Index Level of 95.1).  This month’s drop in consumer confidence, due to a big decrease in the expectations conditions portion of this report, could be a negative signal for future U.S consumer spending and economic growth.

Here are the U.S. Market Data / Releases for next week that could drive treasury yields / mortgage rates up or down:

Monday (07/17/17): Empire (NY) Manufacturing Report

Tuesday (07/18/17): NAHB Housing Market Index

Wednesday (07/19/17): Housing Starts / Building Permits

Thursday (07/20/17): Weekly Jobless Claims, Leading Economic Indicators

Friday (07/21/17): No major U.S. Economic Releases

Here is a recap of the major economic reports from the prior week (a rising 10 Year Treasury Yield means generally higher mortgage rates):

Thursday (07/13/17): The 10 Year Treasury Yield rose to 2.35%.  

– U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to a 247K reading this week (250K during the previous week), coming in slightly greater than market expectations (245K).  In addition, the less volatile, four week moving address for jobless claims is still near a fifty year low at a 246K level. This continued low level of jobless claims shows a continued decline in Americans filing for unemployment insurance, which is a very positive indicator for continuing recovery of the U.S. Labor Market. 

– June 2017 U.S. PPI (wholesale price levels) increased by 0.1% (no change during the previous month), coming in slightly greater than market expectations (no change). In addition, Core PPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) increased by 0.1%, coming in lower than market expectations (0.2% increase). This month’s slight rise in wholesale food and wholesale services was the major factor for this month’s marginal gain in the PPI reading.  This continued muted PPI reading is showing that U.S. inflation might still be holding steady, mostly due to lower higher energy / gasoline prices.

Wednesday (07/12/17): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 2.32%.  

– The Fed (FOMC) Beige Book was released, summarizing the current economic situation in the United States for each Fed district over the past few weeks. The Fed stated that U.S. economic activity is increasing slightly / moderately from May to June.  In addition, wage growth only had a modest / moderate gain. Overall, U.S. economic activity in this Beige Book report was similar to the previous one, so this economic reading should not have a new bearing for the Fed’s future interest rate expectations outlook.

Tuesday (07/11/17): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 2.36%.  

– The May 2017 JOLTS Job Openings Report showed that there were 5.67 Million job openings this month, which is an decrease from the 6.04 Million job openings the prior month.  This report shows that the number of available jobs declined this month, which could be a negative sign for the U.S. Labor Market.

– May 2017 U.S. Wholesale Inventories increased by 0.4% (0.5% decrease during the previous month), coming in slightly greater than market expectations (0.3% increase).  This month’s rise in wholesale inventories shows that U.S. wholesalers are keeping higher inventory levels due to increased confidence that they will sell all of their products, which could be a positive sign for future U.S. economic growth. 

Monday (07/10/17): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 2.37%.  

– The May 2017 U.S. Consumer Credit Report (levels of consumer debts) came in at $18.4 Billion ($8.2 Billion during the previous month), coming in greater than market expectations ($14.3 Billion). This rise in consumer credit, due to a greater than expected rise in credit card use (revolving debt) and in automobile loans and student loans (non-revolving debt), is a positive U.S. consumer spending signal.

Thank you.


Stephen Casil
Vice President
Secondary Marketing Manager
scasil@elyons.com

 


 

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